Global growth seen to slow to 3.6 percent in 2019 - UBS
03 Ocak 2019 14:24
Istanbul, Jan. 3 (DHA) - Global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2019, according to UBS, as tighter monetary policy, weaker earnings growth and political challenges confront the world\'s major economies.
After seeing a growth of 3.8 percent in 2018, UBS said in its outlook for the year ahead that it expected global economic growth to slow to 3.6 percent in 2019, CNBC reported.
\"Our outlook is that U.S. growth will be constrained by ebbing fiscal stimulus and higher interest rates\" economists at UBS said in a note Wednesday. China, meanwhile, is facing the twin pressures of import U.S. tariffs and economic rebalancing.
\"The decline in global growth will mean a weaker tailwind for global markets, which could begin to anticipate an end of the economic cycle as 2019 progresses,\" the investment bank said.
In the meantime, solid domestic demand in the euro zone will not be sufficient to offset reduced export growth, the bank said.
On the bright side, UBS said a recession looks unlikely given current rates of consumption, investment and employment growth \"and we think the typical causes of a downturn are unlikely to materialize in 2019.\" \"Our base case is for inflation to stay contained, allowing central bankers to remain sensitive to growth. We don\'t foresee a major fiscal policy shift or a commodity price shock. Consumer balance sheets are in solid shape and improvements in banking sector capitalization since the financial crisis reduce the risk of a global credit crunch.\"
It also noted that there are growth opportunities and pockets of value.
\"Economic and earnings growth are waning in aggregate. But this slowdown will not be felt uniformly by every country, sector, or company,\" economists said. \"We expect robust growth in firms exposed to secular trends like population growth, aging, and urbanization. Meanwhile, some assets have already begun to factor in a more challenging backdrop.\"
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